2026 municipal elections: a key test for South Africa’s Government of National Unity
By Chris Hattingh
THE 2026 Local Government Elections (LGE) will be a strong indicator on whether the public thinks the country is heading on the right track.
The stakes are high for South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU), which is facing numerous domestic risks and opportunities. Perennially high unemployment and declining levels of service delivery could combine to accelerate political change in the 2026 LGE.
High unemployment and service delivery challenges threaten political stability
With the South African Reserve Bank forecasting GDP growth of 1,7% in 2025, and of 1,8% in 2026, the average quality of life will remain depressed. This provides ample fuel for citizens’ frustrations with the government and with the economic status quo to grow, with the most significant risk being sustained service delivery protests and civil strife.
Opposition parties face a critical opportunity to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction
Following the global electoral changes that took place in 2024, those political parties (and coalitions) that won out will be on a short-time frame from voters.
In South Africa the GNU parties especially have limited time and ever fewer opportunities to convince voters of the work they are doing before the 2026 LGE; on the other hand, parties such as the uMkhonto weSizwe Party and the Economic Freedom Fighters will either manage to focus their messaging and value offering and take advantage of GNU shortcomings, or fall into infighting.
At present the GNU broadly represents the centre in South African politics, with other parties operating on the left. These two blocks could become clearer in 2025, into 2026.
Municipalities that excel in service delivery will attract businesses and investors
For all the political machinations at national level, where the rubber hits the road is at local government, or municipal, level. Those provinces and municipalities that function better, that use effectively the revenue they collect from rates, and that manage to set themselves apart from others will benefit from the continued intra-country migration of businesses and businesspeople, as well as higher-net worth individuals, that are looking for better run local governments and areas in which to invest. There are ample easy wins for local governments to seize in this regard.
Local government performance will drive investment and migration
2025 will confirm whether South Africa is on a different economic growth path following the 2024 elections, or whether the sugar high afforded by the GNU’s formation will prove to be only that, and nothing of more substance to change the country’s fortunes over the longer term.
South Africa to chair the G20 in 2025 amid global geopolitical shifts
On the global front, geopolitics will be upended by the second administration of Donald Trump in the US. South Africa enjoys a great opportunity on this front; the country will hold the chairmanship of and host the G20, with the main summit and numerous side conferences and engagements.
With the US to take over from South Africa in late 2025, there is ample scope for the countries to work together on a shared platform of priorities and trade and investment flows – if not at least to improve channels of communication.
Structural reforms key to boosting South Africa’s investment climate
Regardless of how exactly the administration proceeds, it is within the GNU’s capacity to accelerate structural reforms of network industries and labour markets to place the country on a more pro-business, pro-investment footing.
Should the global trade and investment environment turn more negative, countries that set-up more attractive and transparent business and policy environments will benefit over the long-term.
