THE International Energy Agency – of which South Africa is an association country – recently released its suggestions for curbing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus minimising climate change. The report, Net Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, lays out milestones which must be met by 2050 if we are to limit global warming to just 1,5°C. Startlingly, if every country had the climate action ambition of South Africa’s current targets, global warming would reach between 3°C and 4°C. Our current mitigation commitment under the Paris Agreement has been deemed “critically insufficient”.
While many countries have pledged to play their part in mitigating climate change, the “gap between rhetoric and action needs to close if we are to have a fighting chance,” says Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (EIA). However, the milestones set forth in the roadmap are steep, listing amongst others:
- By 2030 all subcritical coal‐fired power plants must be phased out.
- By 2050, global coal use is 90% lower than in 2020.
- CO2 emissions need to reach 45% less than 2010 levels.
In a mineral-rich country where the mining industry is critical to our economy, the question must be asked: How can we feasibly work towards these milestones without severe economic strain?
Bryce McCall, part of UCT’s Energy Systems Research Group, tells CBN that South Africa could phase out coal by 2040 without too much impact on the economy in the long term. “However, this would need to be managed very well to avoid impact on the communities which rely heavily on coal mines and power stations for their livelihoods,” he adds. McCall and his fellow researchers have identified that future supply will come primarily from wind and solar PV, with just 4% reduction of total GDP by 2050. For other GHG-emitting industries other than the energy sector, McCall reports that hydrogen offers potential for decarbonised operations as chemical feedstock, and fuel.
“SASOL has already started talking about the possibility of using ‘green’ hydrogen for some of their processes. Steel industries worldwide are looking at hydrogen as well. There are already industrial R&D and pilot demos happening, and a lot of money flowing into hydrogen development.” He adds that hydrogen can also be used to power heavy duty vehicles, where battery storage technology is currently insufficient.
“A Net Zero South Africa is certainly possible and will involve changes in all sectors. The path to Net Zero will need to have cross-sectoral collaboration to make it easier and profitable for those sectors which are facing tougher transition challenges,” says McCall.
Key in promoting a greener economy is the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), an agency of the Department of Minerals Resources and Energy. The institute promotes a Just Energy Transition (JET) which is both sustainable and economically inclusive. SANEDI’s Barry Bredenkamp told CBN, “The socio-economic situation in South Africa brings with it a number of challenges, but also a lot of opportunities. That is why the emphasis placed on JET in South Africa is so important. The ‘new’ opportunities brought about by a transition to newer, more modern and clean technologies provide with it the opportunity to introduce many more ‘new’ skills into the economy. This will go a long way in reducing the high unemployment levels, especially amongst the youth, and that in itself will get the economy moving in the right direction. Examples include the envisaged growth in the Hydrogen Economy, which will require a number of ‘new’ skills in manufacturing, maintenance, installation and other areas.”
While South Africa’s energy sector is the most coal-dependent in the G20, it seems there is hope for a transformed energy sector which is able to balance both the environmental and economic agenda. Due diligence, cautious governance, and inclusive development will be key in achieving this. Now the next question remains – do we trust that this will happen?
