By Chris Hattingh
FROM a purely diplomatic perspective, it is positive that the US has a new ambassador in South Africa. The ambassador provides the two countries with a high-level relational channel. When there are substantive disagreements, well-structured diplomatic channels allow them to be clearly communicated, even if not necessarily always resolved.
Under Mr Trump, US foreign policy engagements have taken on a much more transactional, quick-moving nature. This is especially true in the field of trade and investment. Adversaries and allies alike have often been caught off guard when non-trade issues have impacted trade and investment decisions in Washington.
It is against this new geopolitical backdrop that South Africa ought to utilise the new US ambassador to his position’s full potential, both in the short and the medium term.
From discussions with insiders, we infer that Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III arrives in South Africa with an open mind. While he will no doubt have been issued with marching orders in Washington, he will have scope to apply his extensive skills and experience to the challenges that beset the US-South Africa relationship. Those challenges had started gathering pace well before the second administration of Mr Trump.
Mr Bozell will arrive looking for solutions. He will be much better equipped to generate commercial interest in South Africa and shift the perception of South Africa in the White House if his engagements with South Africans produce pragmatic solutions. This applies not only to strains in the US-SA relationship, but also to South Africa’s domestic issues, such as low growth, low investment, and high unemployment.
In his meetings with representatives of South Africa’s government, business and civil society, Mr Bozell will ask probing questions and trigger some very uncomfortable conversations. Over the longer term, South Africa can only benefit from using such moments.
These conversations will include matters such as why South Africa condemns Israeli actions in Gaza but does not act when human rights abuses occur in neighbouring African countries. The parlous state of the SANDF and the navy’s widespread inability to fulfill South Africa’s maritime responsibilities will be of major concern for US regional interests.
The country’s persistently low economic growth (averaging 1% from 2012 to 2023), high unemployment, and low rate of fixed investment will be a further point of discussion.
On policy, why are there consistent threats to property rights, BEE investment taxes, a reluctance to unbundle network industries and allow competition, and ever harsher employment equity policies? Why is the country’s economic heartland experiencing daily water outages?
If South Africa reacts with outrage to such questions, instead of adopting radical introspection and asking whether sacred policy cows are fit for purpose and serve the interests of the people of South Africa, this will only worsen the relationship with the US. It also weakens South Africa in a global context of swiftly moving capital, where new opportunities for trade and growth emerge on an almost daily basis.
Mr Bozell will espouse an America First posture, in line with his career track record. He will be receptive to a South Africa First posture from his counterparts, one that is informed by the country’s own national interest, its goals and priorities – and its view of how the relationship with the US can contribute to achieving them. Should South Africa instead revert to pleading for aid and special treatment in investment and trade – because the country “needs it” – Mr Bozell is unlikely to react with much enthusiasm.
The ANC, which maintains an iron grip on South Africa’s foreign policy, seemingly enjoys its rhetorical battles with the US. But this leaves unaddressed debilitating domestic policies that make doing business more expensive, discourage capital formation and job creation, and weaken the country on the global stage.
Finally, South Africa must factor long-game considerations into its stance towards the US. It must not assume that the relationship with the US will return to “normal” after the next US presidential election.
If South Africa makes the necessary reform decisions and works with the new US ambassador in a pragmatic manner, it will set itself up well over the long term – no matter which party happens to occupy the White House.
The appointment of an ambassadorial envoy from Washington to Pretoria signals a seriousness of purpose and not a predetermined positive or negative worldview of the hosting country. The ball is now in South Africa’s court.
