The residential property market is showing strong signs of recovery, with house price inflation surpassing pre-pandemic levels. “Homes are now on average 39% more expensive than they were in 2019, before the start of the pandemic,” says Bradd Bendall, BetterBond’s National Head of Sales. According to data from BetterBond’s November Property Brief there’s been a year-on-year inflation of 4.1% for first-time buyers and 3.3% for all buyers. In nominal terms, the average annual rate of house price increases for all buyers is 5.9%. “With consumer inflation at 3.8%, there is a strong likelihood that house prices will start increasing in real terms over the next few months”, adds Bendall.
Furthermore, home loan application volumes have jumped by 30% compared to this time last year. “As reported in BetterBond’s November Property Brief, the quarter-on-quarter results are also impressive, with home loan application volumes increasing by 18%”, says Bendall. “Although house prices took a slight knock in July and August this year, compared to the second quarter of 2024, the year-on-year movement suggests that a property market boom is imminent.”
As expected, given the ongoing demand from buyers semigrating from other provinces, the Western Cape registered the most significant price increase, with house prices rising by on average 7.7% between March 2023 and March this year,” says Bendall. Lightstone reports that 14 of the 15 towns with a net gain in homeowners because of semigration in the Western Cape. “Although house price inflation is not evenly distributed among provinces – Stats SA reports that Gauteng saw a price growth of only 0.7% between March 2023 and March this year – there is enough growth to have an impact on buyer and investor confidence in the property market as a whole.”
Another positive, as reported by Lightstone, is that the proportion of negative sales – where a property sells for less than what it was bought for – has decreased from levels seen in the second half of 2023. Notwithstanding these encouraging signs of renewed activity, the impact of two years of high interest rates is still being felt. Homebuyers have had to pay on average 4.7% more on their deposits, with first-time buyers facing a 13% increase in the average value of deposits.
However, it is encouraging that four of the nine regions covered by BetterBond have reported increased home loan values over the past two years, despite high interest rates and the larger deposits required to buy a home. Over the past 12 months, the Western Cape, Greater Pretoria, Johannesburg North West and Mpumalanga recorded average bond values of more than R1 million.
Bendall concludes: “With interest rates expected to drop once more before the end of the year – with some economists predicting a cut of 50 basis points – we expect the upward trajectory of house price inflation to continue. If the current favourable economic conditions persist, and affordability improves, the increased demand for homes is likely to drive further house price growth and that bodes well for the resurgence of the housing market.”
