From coal to clean: South Africa’s 105,000 MW energy shift
By Adrian Ephraim
SOUTH Africa has embarked on its most ambitious energy transformation in the post-apartheid era, with the Cabinet’s approval of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 in October marking an historic pivot toward renewable energy dominance.
The R2.23 trillion plan commits to installing 105,000 MW of new generation capacity by 2039 – equivalent to rebuilding state-owned utility Eskom two-and-a-half times over. For the first time in South Africa’s energy planning history, renewables will generate over half the country’s electricity, with 34,000 MW of onshore wind, 25,000 MW of utility-scale solar, 16,000 MW of distributed generation, and 8,500 MW of battery storage planned.
“This is a pivot from greenhouse gas emissions,” said Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa at the IRP 2025 launch. “We are going to get cleaner and cleaner.”
The plan arrives as South Africa celebrates over 150 consecutive days without load shedding, demonstrating a stabilising electricity supply. However, the reprieve masks a looming challenge: without aggressive grid expansion, the country risks a fresh energy crisis as coal plants retire and renewable projects struggle to connect.
Procurement momentum accelerates
The government’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) Bid Window 7 has become the most solar-intensive round since the programme’s 2011 launch. Total allocated capacity now stands at 3,940 MW across 18 solar projects, following three separate award announcements.
Cape Town-based independent power producer Red Rocket has emerged as a major winner, securing 1,240 MW across six projects. The company’s latest awards in December 2025 included the 240 MW Rondebosch Solar Park in Mpumalanga and two Free State facilities – Springhaas Solar Facility 1 (240 MW) and Springhaas Solar Facility 6 (170 MW).
Norwegian renewable energy company Scatec claimed the largest single allocation with the 846 MW Kroonstad PV cluster, comprising three solar plants in the Free State province. French energy giant Engie secured the 240 MW Corona Solar PV project in North West province.
The surge in solar awards came after the government strategically reallocated unused onshore wind capacity to solar projects, which proved more competitive on pricing and deployment timelines. Winning bids ranged from R420.74/MWh to R506.89/MWh.
The R390 billion grid challenge
South Africa’s transmission infrastructure has become the critical bottleneck threatening renewable energy expansion. The national grid was designed to transmit power from centralised coal-fired plants in the northeast, not to accommodate decentralised renewable generation concentrated in the sun-drenched Northern and Western Cape provinces.
According to Nedbank’s Corporate and Investment Banking division, approximately R390 billion will be required over the next decade to build 14,218 kilometres of additional high-voltage transmission lines and install 170 transformers. The National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA) estimates 134 GW of additional grid connection capacity is needed to integrate the 172 GW renewable project pipeline.
“We are not short of megawatts – we are short of grid capacity,” Ramokgopa emphasised when launching the Independent Transmission Projects (ITP) programme in July 2025. The initiative targets the construction of 10,000 km of new lines and 59 substations over three years, with 25-year availability-based contracts offered to private developers.
The transmission challenge is most acute in provinces with the richest renewable resources. Eskom’s 2025 Generation Connection Capacity Assessment revealed zero available grid capacity in the Northern Cape, which has a 29.2 GW project pipeline, and similarly constrained conditions in the Eastern and Western Cape.
Ground-level progress
Despite infrastructure constraints, deployment continues. The South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA) reported 928 MW of solar capacity added in Q1 2025 alone – 280 MW from REIPPPP projects and 647 MW from private sector installations. By mid-2025, South Africa’s cumulative solar capacity reached 9,457 MW, with a healthy pipeline of 10,078 MW in development.
The March 2025 approval of the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) provides the industrial policy framework to support this transition, targeting at least R15 billion in investment by 2030 and creation of 25,000 direct jobs in manufacturing, logistics, engineering, and construction.
As South Africa races to build the grid infrastructure necessary to unlock its renewable potential, the next 24 months will prove critical. The projects awarded under REIPPPP Bid Window 7 are expected to reach financial close and begin construction, while the first ITP transmission lines won’t be operational until 2028 at the earliest.
The energy revolution is taking shape, but its success hinges on whether private capital can flow into transmission infrastructure as successfully as it has into generation – transforming South Africa from coal-dependent to clean-powered within a generation.
