By SA Water Chamber’s CEO, Benoît Le Roy
The threat of Day Zero in Gauteng has dominated headlines for several months as escalating water outages in the province’s three metros are no longer a future possibility but a present crisis.
What is Day Zero?
Day Zero refers to the critical point at which a city’s water supply is nearly depleted, leaving taps dry and communities in crisis. It is widely accepted that Day Zero is generally linked to dam levels, which supply city water systems. However, in Gauteng’s case, the IVRS (Integrated Vaal River System) is not the direct cause, as dam levels have remained well above 50% and even recently reached 100%. So, what are the actual threats in Gauteng?
Key Threats to Gauteng’s Water Supply
There are several issues driving the current Day Zero Gauteng threat:
- Leaking city infrastructure: Water distribution systems in the metros are leaking between 30% and 40%.
- Rand Water’s financial strain: The bulk water supplier is under financial pressure due to poor payments from its customers—the cities.
- Over-abstraction of water: To compensate for leaking metro systems, Rand Water has been over-abstracting water, which exceeds its legal Water Use License, threatening the sustainability of the IVRS.
This situation has escalated over the past decade, with leaking infrastructure now approaching a 50% loss rate in 2023, up from around 30%. The cause? Aging and poorly maintained pipes, many of which have exceeded their design lifespan. The funding required to repair and maintain these systems is staggering. For Gauteng alone, an estimated R40-billion is needed, with Johannesburg alone requiring R26-billion. On a national scale, the cost is between R200-billion and R400-billion.
Lack of Leadership and Planning
Municipalities must take responsibility and show leadership. They need to produce concrete, council-approved plans to repair and upgrade their aging water systems rather than relying on vague strategies. At present, no significant plans are in place to upgrade the deteriorating infrastructure.
The situation is becoming critical. In Gauteng, Rand Water delivers an average of 4,200 megalitres per day (ML/D), of which 1,600 ML/D is lost due to leaks in municipal systems—a sharp increase from 1,200 ML/D just a few years ago. The collapse of the distribution systems is accelerating.
Despite the pressing need for action, metros have publicly stated they do not have the billions of rands required for repairs. The private sector remains the only viable option for funding, but significant governance issues must be resolved before private investment can be secured. At Nexus Water Alchemy, we are working to develop a water governance framework to address these challenges and will publish our findings in early 2025.
Systemic Risk to National Security
The leaking city infrastructure in Gauteng is not just a regional issue—it poses a national systemic risk to South Africa’s economy and security. As Rand Water reduces its water abstraction by 10% to comply with its legal obligations, metros are expected to run out of water purely due to leaks, not from increased demand. Data shows that water demand has remained consistent over the last three years, with no change between winter and summer demands, highlighting the increasing losses due to leaks.
Nationally, municipal water assets must be reinstated with the utmost urgency, particularly in Gauteng, to avoid further water outages and the potential for a Day Zero scenario—even while the dam system remains relatively well-supplied. The Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) has started publishing weekly Gauteng water dashboards, engaging stakeholders in critical discussions about future water security interventions.
Solutions and the Path Forward
We have several solutions at our disposal to avert the crisis. One of the most effective is ring-fencing water revenues to ensure that funds are used efficiently to address infrastructure needs. Additionally, pressure demand management and “LIVE” management of the water systems using digital tools can significantly reduce water losses. However, political will is required to turbo-charge these efforts and implement the necessary reforms. With these steps, we can avoid the catastrophic Day Zero in Gauteng and secure the province’s—and the nation’s—water future.
At Nexus Water Alchemy, we are committed to developing comprehensive solutions to restore water security in South Africa. While we cannot predict the future with certainty, the writing is on the wall. If we do not act now, the consequences will be severe. But with the right strategies, leadership, and collaboration, we can ensure that Day Zero Gauteng remains a theoretical threat rather than a reality.
