I’m sure that every thinking person is thoroughly sick and tired of the energy debacle which reached uncharted depths with our recent experience of Stage 6 loadshedding.
The experience coincided with the 2nd Annual Southern Africa Oil and Gas Conference, adding importance to the conference’s theme of energy sustainability in this part of the world.
As an attendee, what I appreciated was the quality and reality espoused by the more than 30 excellent and qualified speakers that the event attracted.
All of course, promoted the continued use of fossil fuels as a mature, reliable, low emission and tested energy source and on more than one occasion described in detail the huge potential that our country and its neighbours hold as a future energy source, making SA self-sufficient in its energy requirements for the next 100 years or so, and with plenty to export too.
The upcoming COP27 UN Climate Change Conference to be held in Egypt in November will again – quite rightly IMHO – warn us of the consequences of burning fossil fuels and promote carbon capture and the likes of hydrogen as the panacea we have all been waiting for. I wish with all my heart that this could be so.
The renewables industry – wind and solar – has done a ‘good job’ of demonising oil & gas as the planet’s bogey men and has promoted this dream of clean, free energy that will last forever and ever more!
I pose the question – what’s the difference between a dream and wishful thinking? I suppose it depends upon which part of the evolutionary path you’re sitting on, but wishful thinking conveniently ignores physical facts like physics and mathematics.
The dilemma and the facts
South Africa is currently short of more than 6 000MW of base load electricity, that is if all our generating capacity was working as it should. It also needs to budget and plan for the replacement over the next 30 years or so, of 1 000MW of generating capacity per year to replace equipment and machinery that has a) reached the end of its useful life and b) that satisfies the demands of population growth.
There is only one fuel that is sustainable and non-polluting and that’s nuclear which has dashed the vision promoted by many green supporters of a nasty, dangerous material that can wipe out humanity! Countries that promoted nuclear such as France have suffered least from the latest energy tribulations; Germany with its abandonment of nuclear and coal have suffered the worst along with the UK. It was warned decades ago of the consequences of its reluctance to embrace more nuclear power by non-other than the then PM, Tony Blair. They are now suffering the penalties of plumping for oil & gas which has resulted in through-the-roof energy costs, and that in a country which the greenies trumpet that +25% of the UK’s energy is supplied by wind and a little solar.
SA’s coal exports are booming as some Europeans are taking their coal fired powered stations out of mothballs, to combat the power shortage crisis. What say the environmentalists now?
Back to SA and a little maths. Our energy shortfall could be met within two years with the upgrading of current OCGT capacity and adding a further two CCGT natural gas fired stations (if only we had the ready supply of gas, but it’s coming if someone pulls finger!). Or, as the renewables over everything brigade suggest, wallpapering the countryside with a further +/- 3 000 wind turbines; or more than 30 of the largest 175MW solar farms covering an area of 142km2 and incorporating 16 million solar panels! Oh the logistics (and feeding frenzy)!
There are many of these and other examples of the consequences of ‘wishful thinking’. Maybe we need to learn the lessons?
