THERE I am in the local Pub & Grill, minding my own business and contemplating how the first sip always tastes so much better than any of its successors, no matter how long you try and duplicate it. But, of course, this is a work in progress. The bay is blue, the sun is warm and the beer is cold. The world is whistling its way through space, but, as will happen, in walks Luke the Dude.
Now, I don’t mind Luke that much, in fact, I mostly like him. But he has the very bad habit of disturbing perfectly peaceful company with unnecessary talk of crooks and confidence tricksters. The pub’s Governor does not like such rudeness and indeed, we hardly mention our government.
Our sweet bartender knows politics are taboo, so she just bends over the counter, which keeps most customers happy, and pours another round, which keeps The Governor happy. And with everyone thus relaxed, you never know it’s coming, not with Luke the Dude. He slips it into the conversation in his sly way.
“So,” says Luke to nobody in particular, “what are you ladies and gentlemen doing here? Don’t you have work to do?” We, the gentlefolk in question, look at the TV screen to reassure ourselves that it is indeed approaching rugby time on a Saturday afternoon, as Jon the Joker takes the bait: “Useless! You still don’t know your ANC from your elbow, Luke. Do you know what day it is?”
“Please,” says Luke to the bartender, “do you have a calendar for Jon? He wants to know what day it is.
“Now,” Luke pressed forth, “as I’ve been saying before the rude interruption, “the unemployment crisis is the worst threat we face as a young and occasionally promising country. And as for our government, they continue making it worse.”
You see what I mean?
Not everybody agrees and there you have it.
“No ways,” says Bill the Beard, a well-known intellectual and electrician, “it’s education! That’s the pits! Did you see what questions they have to answer to pass the matric exams? We have youngsters entering the jobs market who cannot manage simple calculations or writing.”
“I fully agree,” says Miss Lily, “and the education minister is a highly paid failure.”
“Mmmm,” says Bob the Book, who tries to outguess the markets in his spare time, “I’ll buy more Curro shares on Monday.”
“No, no, you are too materialistic,” says Irene the Queen, “our biggest problem is poverty. Children are literally dying of hunger.”
“All very true,” says The Prof, “and all very sad. These disasters are home-made – indigenous ineptitude. Grand theft and corruption, incompetents in high office, race discrimination and vast overstaffing in the civil service. Avarice and incompetence rule. Our economy is being depleted and mismanaged into bankruptcy. We are sliding towards the fiscal cliff.”
Then everybody speaks at once and our bartender gives me her helpless look. Thus encouraged to chivalry, I bang on the counter and shout: “Order!” Everybody does. The bartender pours another round and the shouting is replaced by mutterings of, “Make mine a double, for Pete’s sake. He’s paying.”
So I say, “Please explain, Prof? Just keep it simple.” What else could I say?
“Fiscal cliff?” replied The Prof, “Well, the government’s budget has two sources of funding, taxes and borrowing. Interest on borrowings has to be paid from taxes or more borrowing. Our problem is that our base of taxpayers is very narrow: too few taxpayers. Economic growth – more profitable enterprises and taxpaying jobs – does not keep up with population growth. Our bad education system and government interference in the private sector make matters worse. Our employment rate is worse than it has ever been. More and more people are living on government grants. Covid was a disaster, softened somewhat by taxes from a commodities boom.
“The fiscal cliff is reached when all government revenue is used for paying social grants, civil servants and debt servicing. Of course, industrial-scale theft and corruption, state capture if you like, make matters much, much worse. Nothing is left for investment and maintenance.
“Dr Anthea Jeffery of the Institute for Race Relations describes it expertly in a Daily Friend article: Spending on these three income gobblers was roughly 55% of tax revenue by February 2020 – expected to reach 100% in that first Covid year. The tax windfall from rising commodity prices saved us from going over the cliff.
“Still, estimates in this year’s budget put spending on social grants, debt servicing and public servants at 75% of tax revenues.”
“Well!” exuberated Big Ben, “that’s good news then! 75% is a good distance from the 100% feared for 2020, the ANC is doing a good job!”
The Prof smiled. “The commodities boom did help,” said he, “but a ball rolling downhill picks up speed. As less revenue is available for infrastructure and investment – the stuff economic growth is made of – unemployment rises and more people need social grants. That scenario is not sustainable.”
“As I recall,” offered Stevie the Poet, “the latest Budget Review did have something to say about that?”
“Indeed,” confirmed The Prof, “the National Treasury is determined that permanent additions to social support must be balanced by new taxes or spending cuts.”
“A ha!” jubilated Big Ben. “Thought so. Our government has the nettle by the horns!”
That, at the very least, reduced the wall-to-wall frowns. “Useless!” laughed Jon the Joker, “don’t you mean, grab the bull by the thorns?”
“Quite so,” chortled The Prof. “But our government is full of surprises. This time the minister of social development, Lindiwe Zulu, is sneaking in powers to overrule the minister of finance and his budget. I kid you not. As Dr Jeffery warns – never mind the Budget, Zulu will determine the grants’ ‘value and duration’ as she pleases.
“We know the risk. We can take it or we can take a stand. Please excuse me, I have work to do.” With that The Prof left.
- You can read Anthea Jeffery’s article here: https://dailyfriend.co.za/2022/03/10/smuggling-in-a-permanent-income-support-grant-via-the-back-door/
- noag@maxitec.co.za
