Energy resilience is a long-term multi-focal strategy
By Ian Burger, Managing Director: Technical at SOLA Group
The South African power system is showing signs of recovery, but organisations need to invest in resilience to ensure long-term stability and sustainability.
Eskom’s 2026 energy statements reflect a stronger and more stable power system as the country enters the year. Lower unplanned outages, higher energy availability, and a sustained period without load shedding have put the power system on a more even footing. It’s good news for the country, but it is also an opportunity for commercial and industrial companies to build their own infrastructural stability that will support them over the long term.
Companies don’t experience energy supply as a single national number; it is what they experience at their own connection point that matters. The stability in the Eskom generation fleet reduces overall energy pressure, but doesn’t remove the risk. This is because energy security is defined across four layers: generation, transmission, distribution, and behind-the-meter resilience. If any one of these levels fails, the business feels the impact, regardless of national averages.
On the generation side, with improved Eskom performance and private sector capacity increasing continually, there is more “headroom” in available capacity. This allows systems to ride through periods that previously triggered load shedding and facilitates scheduled maintenance, which reduces the risk of unplanned outages and improves the longevity of the plants. However, this is not the time to pause planning and investment. Eskom’s decommissioning plan is set to remove as much as 10.5 GW of ageing coal capacity by 2030. To replace this retiring fleet in such a short time and add additional capacity to facilitate economic growth, the majority of new capacity must come from renewables and the private sector.
The scale of renewables penetration necessitates the inclusion of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) to allow for dispatchability (the delivery of energy at specific times of the day). Solar and wind are available at capacity factors of roughly 30% and 40%, respectively. Adding two to four hours of BESS to a Solar PV plant broadens the supply profile and increases the capacity factor to 35%–40%, while 6 to 8 hours of storage can push that capacity factor up to 65%. Beyond arbitrage, where energy delivery is shifted for off-peak to peak periods for maximum commercial benefit, BESS offers overall grid strengthening through ancillary services, such as frequency control and voltage support.
Another consideration is that South Africa’s transmission system has historically been operated well, but it is now running into a very practical bottleneck in terms of grid access for new generators. Due to the migration to distributed generation, which has very different requirements than the grid that was built for the more centralised coal generation fleet. Renewable projects increasingly require major interconnection, as well as upstream strengthening works, either as part of the project scope, Eskom build, or as part of the Independent Transmission Projects. Delays in the Independent Transmission Projects Programme have a direct consequence for how quickly new generation can be bought online.
At the distribution level, where customers actually connect, reliability is also a concern. Rising municipal debt limits funds for local maintenance. This creates a “certainty gap”: the national system may be stable, but certain local connections remain fragile. The final piece is behind-the-meter (BtM) resilience. BtM generation and storage mitigate the risks of the other three layers, offering the potential for partial back-up, to full off-grid solutions. For companies already procuring wind or solar via wheeling electricity across the national grid, BtM BESS allows them to “shape” their load, maximising renewable penetration and using arbitrage to cover the costs of the installation by offsetting higher tariff period consumption.
When companies invest in generation and storage, whether it’s BtM or through wheeling agreements, there’s the added benefit beyond the direct commercial and environmental impact that it contributes to the overall grid strengthening, which improves the country’s energy security and helps mitigate the risk of the country falling into a cycle of action in crisis. Ultimately, this stabilisation of the energy landscape fosters a more predictable environment for economic growth and, importantly, de-risks South Africa as a destination for foreign investment.
Eskom’s improved performance offers a vital planning window. It is a chance to strengthen your energy position and ensure your business is placed to handle whatever comes next – be it infrastructure constraints, evolving tariff structures, or the growing need for flexible, green supply.
